Will shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recover to 25 transits a day before the end of 2026?

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is tracked by transit-count data services and fluctuates with the level of regional tension, insurance costs for vessels transiting the area, and rerouting decisions by shipping companies. A meaningful recovery in daily transit numbers would reflect easing risk perceptions among shippers and insurers, which typically follows sustained calm rather than a single announcement. Resolves: 14 January 2027 • Source: IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint transit data (portwatch.imf.org) Rule: Resolves YES if the seven-day rolling mean of daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz reaches 25 or more on any date up to and including 31 December 2026, taken from the IMF PortWatch Daily Chokepoint Transit Calls dataset and computed by Voxly from the published figures. Because PortWatch publishes weekly and in arrears, this poll settles on the first PortWatch release on or after 14 January 2027. Announcements that the strait has "reopened" do not resolve this on their own.